Solid Ground
The sports betting public loves favorites. The bookies make a handsome sum every season. That should tell you something. It’s an easy equation. If you took a junior college logic class (like I did) you would have to conclude that betting favorites is a losing proposition.
The problem with that conclusion it that it leads you to an incorrect opposite assumption - if favorites are a bad bet, then underdogs must be a good bet. Unfortunately that doesn’t work either. The truth is, all sports bets are a bad bet if you are only going to quantify them by such broad categories.
Still, there is¬†a solid methodology¬†to be found in there somewhere. Actually there are two. The first is, you generally want to be on the opposite side of games that the public is betting heavily on one side. It’s just good policy to be betting against the public.
The other is, lean towards underdogs. Don’t bet every underdog of course. Successful sports betting means being selective in your wagers. The best advice I can give you is to cultivate a style of selectively picking small to medium underdogs as the situation warrants.
However, there are some favorites that warrant backing. Occasionally a team is just too strong for the competition and it takes the linemakers too long to catch up with them. An example is the New England Patriots this season, and an even better example is the over in all of their games.
Most sports bettors will take that concept too far and let themselves be talked into betting too many favorites using the Patriots as an excuse. These types of teams and situations are rare. Your bets on favorites should be as well.
