Your Bookie’s Edge Defined
I write a lot about getting the edge, but sometimes people ask me to define that term a little more. That’s a good question, and it’s a step towards becoming a winning sports bettor. That is,¬†caring enough to want to understand the concept. It’s a start anyway.
If your bookie showed up on your doorstep and wanted to flip a coin a bunch of times with you risking -110 to win 100 for each flip, you would probably slam the door in his face. He doesn’t do that because he doesn’t have to - you call him every weekend (maybe more) and do the same thing with your sports bets. At least, I’m assuming that’s what you do. That’s what 95% of all sports bettors do anyway.
Random sports bets are the same thing as risking -110 to win 100 on a coin flip. Most sporting events with a point spread are indeed a coin flip, and for the ones that aren’t you are just as likely to bet the wrong side as the right side, making them a coin flip in the long run as well.
If you know what you are doing you can just bet the ones that are not a coin flip, with the odds on your side. But barring that possibility, your bookie has a 5% edge. That means he expects to win $5 for every $100 you wager over the course of the season. This is because you risk 10% more than you can win, and in two coin flips you are expected to win one and lose one, losing 5% of the total amount wagered.
Now hold on to your hats because it gets worse. Bookies wouldn’t stay in business for a mere 5% of all the action. It’s not enough to make it worthwhile. The truth is they make a lot more.
How? Why? It’s because sports bettors don’t properly manage their bankroll! They bet more than they can afford to lose if they hit a bad streak. And bad streaks happen. All the time. This is known as variance to professional gamblers, and it’s how the typical sports bettor lets himself get taken out of the game - even if he is smart enough to only bet games where he has the edge!
To win you must stick to plays where you have an edge and bet the optimal percentage of your bankroll. This is how the bookies win, and it’s your only chance as well.
