Taking Advantage of Pregame Pointspread Movements
One of the reasons there are so many opportunities to get an edge on the pregame sports contracts is because the opening line doesn’t change at Tradesports. This is important for you to understand, so that you can take advantage of a formula I have developed for adjusting odds on point spread movements. When the betting line first comes out on an event, it will often be days in advance of the actual game. For one reason or another (the reason is not important) the point spread will often move by game day, sometimes as much as 2-4 points or more.
For example, if Chicago opened a -1.5 favorite over Minnesota in the NFL on Tuesday, but on Sunday morning all the sportsbooks have the point spread at Chicago -3.5, then the line moved 2 points during the week. Yet the line at Tradesports on Sunday morning (and all through the game) will still be Chicago - 1.5. So now the odds that you see offered on the point spread contract will have moved significantly away from even money as a result.
The offers available for taking Chicago minus only 1.5 would now have you laying much higher odds than around -110, probably closer to -138. Conversely, you will also see offers available for taking Minnesota + 1.5 paying significant odds, perhaps around +117.
What I have discovered is that the MM’s and other players are usually not adjusting the odds properly when a line has moved. Sometimes they are, but usually not. These situations will be some of your best overlays. You will be stepping in front of the big quantity offers when you find the side that is off (most of the time your position will be on the team with the point spread disadvantage). Your offers will usually get filled, and you will enjoy many large edges on games where the line has moved.
¬†In football there are three key numbers that when a betting line moves across affect the odds more than crossing other numbers. They are: 3, 7, and 10. This is because many games are won by exactly 3, 7, or 10 points in this sport. (In basketball there are no key numbers like this.) Many betting lines will be off by exactly 1/2 point simply because all Tradesports point spreads are in 1/2 point increments. The reason for this is obvious - almost all wagers will either be a win or a loss this way. It generates more revenue for the site and saves us all from the wasted efforts of “push” results.
The thing you want to watch for is when the 1/2 point line move that Tradesports makes crosses one of the key numbers in a football game. When a team is favored by 3, they have to choose whether to make them a 2.5 or 3.5 favorite, and this critical decision creates opportunities for the sharp player.
