How to Get an Edge in the Over/Under Contracts at Tradesports
In my opinion some of the best opportunities in sports are available playing the over/under contracts on Tradesports. These things can be a goldmine if you develop the proper mindset for them.
The reason I say this is because I don’t believe the consensus betting line numbers are all that good. I’m not saying that you, I, or anyone else can come up with a better number than the line makers - we can’t. What I am saying is that they shouldn’t really be just one number in my opinion. They should be a spread of 2-3 numbers. That’s how I see it. Nailing down one number for the total score of any game is pretty absurd if you think about it.
That doesn’t mean a sports bettor laying -110 against the over/under is going to have much of a chance at coming out ahead, no matter how good he is at handicapping the total score. But plenty of them try, and you will have no problem getting your offers hit on the over/under line.
It might not make any sense to you yet the way I am presenting my point. If the total points should be a spread and not a single number, then the bookmaker putting out a single number should be at a disadvantage and the player should be at an advantage. This may in fact be true if these were even-money odds wagers, but having to lay -110 on them kills it for the player. It’s that nasty 5% edge again, and it can’t even be overcome by exploiting what I see as a gaping flaw in sports betting. (So here you see again why you and I are mathematical players, and not handicappers.)
So how do you take advantage of this alleged flaw? This is how: Be willing to take odds on either side of an over/under number that is within reasonable proximity of the going line if you can get +117 or better. That’s my secret to playing these things, and if you use this guideline to play them as well, after a short while you will begin to see why.
Final scores are all over the place. Sure, some games are expected to be low scoring and some high-scoring, and usually for a very good reason. But all that is reflected in the over/under line itself. For our purposes it just needs to be close, that’s all. This is not like my odds adjustment chart for the point spread where every 1/2 point in line is critical to the odds you need. You just need to be within a couple of points of a fair over/under line (because the fair line is questionable anyway) and be getting good odds - the more the better! I just love it when I get +122, even +127 on an over/under line that is maybe 2.5 points off the going line. And this happens all the time!
You should understand the procedure by now. Look at the line consensus number to get a general idea of about where it should be. If you happen to look at the TradebetX number first (like right when you get done with the money line winner contract) and see that there is a tight spread with big dollars at -112 or lower on both sides, just skip it.
You always want to be getting odds on over/under plays. At least +117 to you. Never play them for lower odds, because you don’t have to. OK, OK, if you can get +112 on a very accurate line go ahead, but I would much rather have +119 on a number that appears a little “off” to everyone else.
Whatever you do, never, ever, try to handicap an over/under and then lay odds on it like your customers do.
