Smart Superbowl Bets
Ready for the playoffs? Got any horses in the race yet? Take my advice and get some now!
Due to the current Patriots-mania and resulting Patriots/Colts skew of the NFL Superbowl futures markets, a smart player can find some serious value on the board right now. I just got back from Tradesports and couldn’t believe some of the prices on the no-too-shabby underdogs in this year’s NFL tournament.
In order for a non by-week team to win the Superbowl they will have to win 4 games in a row. A 4-team parlay should pay at least 11-1 and you know that your team is gonna be a considerable dog somewhere along the line, so looking for the better dogs paying 20-1 or better is a good strategy. This translates to purchasing teams at 5.0 or less at the binary futures structure that tradesports.com uses.
The first thing I noticed is that the NFC isn’t adding up correctly. If you hit the ask price on every NFC team to win the Superbowl, you only pay 22.5 total. This is an absolute freeroll on the Patriots losing a playoff game. What I mean is, you buy every NFC team for an equal dollar amount and sell the NFC winner before the superbowl. No way will it be worth less than 22 at that time, and if the Pats lose a playoff game you will at least double your money. A free bet!
However, I am personally going with some irresistible dogs instead. Here’s what I picked up today:
Packers @ 5.6 (Risk $56 to win $944)
Chargers @ 3.9 (Risk $39 to win $961)
Jax @ 4.6 (Risk $46 to win $954)
Bucs @ 1.0 (Risk $10 to win $990!)
Skins @ 1.4 (Risk $14 to win $986!)
Technorati Tags: Nfl, Football picks, Superbowl, Nfl playoffs, Sports betting
January 4th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I really like that Jax pick. That might be solid if the rookie can get his feet under him in the playoffs but we’ll see. Rookie’s have been there before. With just $14 bucks, I’d lay that one as well seeing the skins have been playing with a purpose and are on quite the roll right now, but they’ll have a helluva test in Seattle this weekend. I think I’d rather take Jax on the road @ the Steelers and the Skins with the points for this weekend.