Take the Giants on the Money Line
I wrote a post before the first round of the NFL playoffs giving some Superbowl futures betting strategies. The main idea behind them was finding value by going against the Patriots. As you no-doubt know by now, the Pats have made the Superbowl and are poised to make history as an 11-point favorite to be the first ever 19-0 record Superbowl champion. However, I have not changed my stance on post-season NFL betting one bit.
There is one last chance to get some value by taking advantage of Patriots mania, one last chance to have a slight edge betting that this bubble will burst. Now I am not saying that New England is not a good football team. But I am saying they are not as good as the hype makes them up to be. And where there is hype, there is value in betting against the hype.
Did you see the Chargers game? The Patriots were very beatable. Had San Diego just shown up for the game they would have easily won.
My recommendation at this point is to be like the non-betting Superbowl crowd - those people who don’t care about point spreads or even understand them. Pick a team and root for them. And the team I want you to root for is New York.
That means betting the money line on the Giants to win outright. You heard me. This is where the real value lies. Now with an 11-point spread there are many sportsbooks that won’t even offer a money line. But you can get it at the betting exchanges, which is where a smart player bets anyway. I just got back from Tradesports.com and saw that you can pick up the Giants to win at 18.
So that’s a $180 risk to win $820 on the Giants to win. Or $90 to win $410, or $45 to win $205. You know something? The Giants just might win. Really. Go get your position.
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