Wacky Superbowl Proposition Bets
Many of this year’s Superbowl proposition bets have now emerged from the abyss. These are designed to be fun, but a smart player can find value in them. I don’t recommend going nuts on them, and you should seriously avoid the sucker plays. Those would include most of the wagers that have an increased juice factor, or a nice middle ground inside of a spread where the bookies win both sides.
For example, one of the props this year is whether or not an NFL player will be arrested in Phoenix this week. You have to lay -120 on either side. That’s too much, unless there really is an edge betting on no arrests (like it seems there should be). But what about traffic tickets? Technically anytime you are detained it is an “arrest.”
Couple that with the vagueness of the proposition, that is, does it refer to all NFL players or just the Giants and Patriots, and you have a clear sucker play to stere clear of. You can bet that the books will interpret the definition of terms to their advantage after the fact.
I used to have a lot of fun with these things. I remember when Shaq was on the Lakers they used to play every Superbowl Sunday and there was always a prop bet as to which would be higher, his free throw shooting percentage or the total points scored in the Superbowl. That was a pretty good one (the smart money was usually on the game total). But the field goal over/under by contrast is usually exactly 3 and that is just too difficult to play.
I will take a look at this year’s props over the next few days and put up a post of my picks for them later in the week. There is bound to be some value in there somewhere. Maybe on Tom Petty’s last song at halftime being “Running Down a Dream.”
Technorati Tags: Superbowl, Football picks, Sports betting
