Hoosiers Come Back and Pay Me More than 2-1
Last night was another perfect example of one of my favorite Tradesports strategies: Betting on good teams who are behind when there is lots of time left. I guess there is a little more to it than that, being as you need to be getting the right odds for this tactic to be long-run profitable. Those odds need to be balanced against the team’s actual chances of coming back and winning.
These plays are made on the featured games at Tradesports. In college basketball that means the ESPN televised games, usually two per night. The best time to make the play is early in the second half, betting on a good team that is behind but can certainly still win. They need to be far enough behind that the odds have gotten good. The best setups occur when the team behind was the pre-game favorite.
You can make this play at any sportsbook or exchange that offers in-running betting, but Tradesports is where you will find the best odds. This is because for featured games there is a market maker keeping a 4-5 point spread at all times, providing lots of liquidity. In fact you can wager on any sporting event intra-game there, but the featured games are where the liquidity is.
However, you can play market maker yourself on non-featured games, and that is another way to get an edge if you know what you are doing - but that is a topic for another day.
So last night, in the Indiana verses Illinois game, early in the second half Indiana was down 10. They were a small favorite before the game, so all the action had shifted to the straight up game winner contracts (that is where the MM was making a market). The contract price on Indiana had dropped to around 30, just what I look for. I went ahead and lifted the offer and got in at 30.
The Hoosiers came back and won in double overtime and my $50 wager returned a total of $166.50, for a $116.50 profit. Lovin’ life.
Technorati Tags: Sports betting, Ncaa basketball
