Sports Betting Tips

The optimal time to get into profitable positions on the Major League Baseball playoffs is right before they begin. Hey, that’s now! Most sports bettors only think about futures wagers earlier in the season, but the best opportunities from a risk/reward standpoint often occur right after the playoff schedule is set. Usually there will be an over-hyped team or two that is just begging to be bet against. This can be effectively accomplished by a couple of different ways if you have a Tradesports account (as you should).

The first way is to simply sell the over-hyped team. Very often this is the best way to go. That way you have every other team in the playoffs working for you. Right now that would be the Chicago Cubs, currently priced at around 40 to win the National League pennant. Considering that there are four good teams all competing for this spot, giving the cubs a 40% chance to win it seems a bit optimistic to me.

The Cubs are also priced at around 20 to win the World Series, which makes them the clear favorite. This is consistent with the pennant pricing, but if you sell the series contract you have one extra team working for you. However not every team has their series price consistent with their pennant price - and this creates another opportunity.

The most glaring example right now is the Red Sox pricing. They are at 17 to win the series but 28 to win the pennant. Since the series price should be half of the pennant price, something isn’t jiving. It doesn’t matter which one is off if you are interested in the arbitrage trade. Simply sell them to win the pennant and buy them to win the series for an equal number of contracts and you cannot lose. If they lose the pennant you pick up 9 points of profit. If they make it to the world series they will certainly be priced at least 45 to win it, so you can cover before the series begins and get your money back. This is a classic freeroll trade.

Always look for the over-hyped team at the beginning of any post-season in sports. Because their pricing will be skewed it will create opportunities all over the board. Sometimes the best play is selling the over-hyped team, sometimes it means buying every other team, and sometimes you simply want to play a longshot or two that are getting exceptional value. But it’s the hype that creates opportunities in sports betting, one way or another.

Technorati Tags: Baseball, Sports betting

College football is upon us, resulting in most of us smart sports bettors getting just a bit excited again. As well we should be, because this sport is not only one of the last pure unspoiled games on the planet, but also one of the best value-producing games in all of sports betting. You don’t have overpaid premadonnas mailing it in because they are crying over their latest contract dispute in college football. Every player on the field is giving it an all-out 100% effort, 100% of the time. That makes for some good handicapping opportunities, especially early in the season.

But there are some traps you need to be aware of. Only about 5% of sports bettors actually make money over the course of the season, and I really want you to be one of them. There is nothing like watching the big NCAA football games on your big screen or at your local sports bar knowing that you have the best of it on any given Saturday. Order another beer and watch all the habitual losers tear up their parlay cards or pound the tables in disgust as the sports ticker scrolls under the television, knowing that you are likely on the other side of the game that is killing them.

But hey, if you want to be one of those poor people (quite literally), it’s pretty easy to do. Here are some tips for losing at college football betting.

Don’t do any of these things if you like your bankroll:

• Team A beat Team B and Team B beat Team C earlier in the season. Now Team A is playing Team C, so they are obviously going to slaughter them. Bet heavily on them regardless of the line.

‚Ä¢ Lean towards favorites, especially small to medium favorites since they don’t have to win by too much and they are obviously the better teams.

• Take the big underdogs, you know the ones getting 28+ points. Heck you are 4 touchdowns or more ahead when the game starts!

‚Ä¢ Get in the habit of betting on the top 5 ranked teams every weekend. It’s good to have the best teams in the country working for you.

• Always bet the Thursday night televised game.

‚Ä¢ Don’t worry about about betting against a team’s homecoming game - that has no affect on the outcome of the game.

• When a big favorite was upset on the road last week and now is a significant favorite at home this week, bet against them - obviously they showed they are a lot weaker than everybody thought, and getting those points looks good.

‚Ä¢ Bet bigger on your stronger picks and smaller on the ones you like but don’t love.

• Play teasers - those extra points make handicapping a lot easier.

‚Ä¢ Definitely don’t open an account at a top betting exchange like Tradesports.com where you can usually finagle better odds and even be the bookie if you want to. Just keep laying -110 against the pointspread at a traditional bookie service and don’t worry about the juice.

Technorati Tags: College football, Ncaa football, Sports betting, Football picks

As the 2008 Presidential election approaches, a smart trader starts looking for positions where he or she can enjoy a nice edge. As of this writing, some of the most outstanding trading opportunities that I have ever seen exist in this market (binary contracts on the November Presidential election). Now many of you are probably not familiar with these particular markets, and that is precisely the reason these opportunities exist. It is largely an undiscovered trading vehicle, resulting in an inefficient market which is extremely profitable to trade. I highly recommend that you get involved in it ASAP.

The first question I probably need to answer is where do you need to open an account so you can bet on …ummm…. I mean trade, the election. The two best markets are:

• Intrade (a division of Tradesports) at www.intrade.com

• Iowa Electronic Markets (run by Iowa University) at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

I highly recommend that you open an account at both so you can trade the arbitrage opportunity that I am about to describe, and/or seek out the best contract prices. If you already have a Tradesports account then you automatically have an Intrade account, although you will have to fund it separately. (Your password will be the same and your login name will be your Tradesports login name with a .i after it.)

Now, on to the trade. As of today McCain is a decided underdog at Intrade and about even money at IEM. This is easy money and it doesn’t matter who wins. Fund accounts at both places and buy McCain at Intrade while simultaneously selling him at Iowa. Currently you can buy Mccain for about 38-39 at Intrade and sell him for about 45-46 at IEM. You may have to clean out some bids and offers and sit there with an inside bid for a few days to get everything filled, but these markets are high-volume with a lot of interest so it’s not a problem to do.

For example, let’s say you send a check for $1,000 to each place. At Intrade you will wipe out all the current offers selling Mccain through 38.9 and sit there with the rest of your order at around 38.5. You would also wipe out all the bids through about 44.1 at Iowa and sit there with a sell order for the rest of your money at around 44.5. You will need to check back daily and see if anybody fronted your offers so you can leapfrog them in order to get first fill. With this much gap in price a half-point on either side doesn’t really matter.

That’s the free money trade. Adventurous gamblers may be interested in knowing that Intrade has an incredible accuracy record of predicting the outcomes of political events. That being said, I am more inclined to buy McCain under 40 and take my chances with my speculation money. Personally I could see him winning in the biggest landslide in recent history, so at that price it looks like a great value.

Oh yeah, one last thing. Never let your own personal political affiliations affect your trading decisions in these contracts. It’s bad for business.

Technorati Tags: Presedential election, Binary contracts, Trading, Mccain, Obama